The Aftermath of theTaiwanese Elections

Congratulations to Taiwan and the democratic system! They are the only Chinese speaking democracy in the world and yet not formally recognized as a sovereign country (that subject deserves its own post).  The majority of my friends are ecstatic about Saturday's election results, while some coworkers are clearly less than enthused.

One would have to be living in a cave not to hear about the DPP's "landslide" victory (if 56.6% can be considered a landslide) and the election of Taiwan's first female president.  The new parliament is not only a DPP majority in power and with many new inexperienced legislators, but also has 5 legislators from the newly formed Sunflower Movement's New Power Party (時代力量).

Overall the recent election creates more questions than answers:

Q1. How did Beijing respond? How will they respond?

China called the recent election a hallucination and the DPP's goal of kick-starting the Taiwanese economy (without them) a lost cause.  Pro China supporters from the Mainland were allowed to flood the new president's Facebook page. And it comes as no surprise that the Chinese military carried out landing drills and live fire  right across the nearest Taiwanese island of Kinmen. (I predicted they would do this which really is no credit to me as much as to Beijing's predictable bullying.)

Q2. So what does  this current election mean for Taiwan? 

Fresh Blood. The face of an alternative to the stagnated 2 party dichotomy is Freddie Lim (of course an Aquarian). A cultural icon for Asian heavy metal music and Taiwanese political activism Freddie founded the pro- independent New Power Party  (NPP) among many other social justice advocacy work and won a seat in parliament. (Read the January 19th GQ article here.)

Young Taiwanese are interested in participating in politics and see the fruits of their activism.

Electric Revision: Hello  Madame President! What are some of the first things on Tsai Ing-wen's ambitious agenda?
* Reclaim KMT assets in South Korea valued at over $ 760 million.
* Have Taiwan join the TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) and compete with its global neighbors without keeping all of its eggs in one basket.
* Legislate transparency for all of Taiwanese- Chinese dealings. This was a major demand in the Sunflower Movement and means that Beijing will inadvertently be accountable to the Taiwanese people, which is mind blowing if you think about it.

In the long-term she plans on jump  starting the economy and innovation in 5 sectors including renewable energy, biotechnology and defense.

She must achieve this with the cooperation of the KMT, still maintain the "status quo" with China, while promoting Taiwanese businesses like HTC, Asus and MediaTek. Quite the cumbersome program!

Q3.) How will power be transferred from the defeated KMT to the DPP?

For now the world is watching how power will be transitioned from the KMT to the DPP and whether or not that involves a shadow gov't to assist with this handover. For now it appears there will be no temporary gov't, despite all of Ma's cabinet ministers stepping down. Ma has already insisted he will be no lame duck (ya right).

Q4.) What is the response of the US, Taiwan's biggest ally?

So far the US (Taiwan's main weapons supplier) stated they have a vested interest in maintaining peace between the two countries as well as being happy with the Taiwanese free election system, congratulating Tsai Ing-wen on her win.  Interestingly, Canada is quickly getting itself into a pickle and will have to eventually pick sides (read, "Canada's Government Looking the Other Way".)

Sources:
China Takes Aim at Taiwan
China Tells Taiwan to Abandon Independence
Meet Freddie Lim (GQ)
Pro China Posts Flood Taiwan President Elect's Facebook
China Military Reports Landing Drills Days After Taiwanese Election
Twenty Somethings in Taiwan and the Country's First Female President
Transparent Chinese Relations a Priority
How Will Mainland China Respond To Taiwan's Elections?
Canada's Government Looking the Other Way

The Matters of the Ma-Xi Meeting and Taiwanese Elections

“The US-Taiwan relationship is more complex and far-reaching than most people realize,” said Jeffrey Horwitz, US Department of State.

Presidential candidates Eric Chu (KMT) and Tsai Ing-wen (DPP)

What's up with Taiwan anyways and why does it even matter to the average American far away across the Pacific? First lets clarify one misconception; I found most Americans seem to confuse Taiwan with Thailand. I won't judge them, Taiwan is purposely excluded from international participation in many conferences or formally recognized by the UN. Taiwan is low on the average American's radar, although it shouldn't be. The US regularly sells helicopters, weaponry and training to Taiwan and as Mainland China has about 12,000 missiles pointed at Taiwan, the Taiwanese perception is America will come to their aid if China invades. When this misconception comes up I tell my Taiwanese friends don't bet on it. For now the US will do everything they can do avoid conflict with China, like supporting Japanese militarization and increased navy activity in the South China Sea (but that's another subject).

President Ma turned up the drama button with his last minute announcement that he was having an historic meeting with Xi the leader of China in Singapore three weekends ago. It was extremely upsetting for most Taiwanese. Overseas Taiwanese students made a joint statement opposing the meeting. I was utterly bewildered (and I have the luxury of flying home should the situation get heated).

The local media had a field day; Ma apparently drank too much, but at least he held a press conference (unlike Xi) which obviously was not shown in China. Protesters in Taipei fought with police and chanted, "Ma, don't come back!" Mainland Chinese allowed their citizens to flood DPP [green] party candidate (and most likely future president) Tsai Ing-wen's Facebook page  denounced the meeting, while Chinese [state] newspapers accused her of being narrow minded and selfish.

The timing couldn't be even more suspicious as Ma's [blue] KMT  (Kuomintang) party lost in local  elections last year as well as current polls, to the historically pro-independence DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) party.

Here is the layman's background of Taiwan's political history: Although the KMT fought the communists in 1949, their US backed leader Chiang Kai-shek was another example of a totalitarian who controlled with an iron fist and suppressed local dissent (known as the White Terror Era   under martial law. Democratic reforms only happened after his death in 1975 and democracy wasn't a reality until the first direct presidential election in 1996 (which China responded to by launching some missiles). Unfortunately the last DPP president Chen Shui-bian was jailed for corruption charges which led to Ma's election. He courted mainland China hoping increased economic dependence and trade would soften their military threats and the potential of  an invasion. It boosted Taiwanese business in China, increased Chinese tourism in China and attracted Chinese students to study in Taiwanese universities.  But it also resulted in stagnated wages, lower economic trade with Asian partners and the perception that China is even more adamant on reunification dissipate Ma's butt kissing.

The Sunflower Movement  was key in articulating publicly, the Taiwanese fear of Ma selling out Taiwan to China via the CSSTA (Cross Strait Service Trade Agreement) a non transparent trade agreement , as well as inspire the more violent Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong (read "Today's Hong Kong Tomorrow's Taiwan").

So far,  DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen, a political professor from Kaohsiung, is leading in the polls. Taiwan's presidential election is this January. My daughter certainly is routing for her, if not for the sole reason that she would be Taiwan's first female president and secondly, that she wouldn't "sell out Taiwan to China". Tsai Ing-wen has gone out of her way to repeat that she would not push for independence but maintain the status quo, although China says quite the opposite.  What is up for debate is the 1992 Consensus, which recognizes ,"One China, Two Principles." Tsai Ing-wen's stance is the 1992 Consensus never happened. She re-framed the whole argument into the Taiwan Consensus back in 2011.

In desperation, the KMT swapped their female presidential candidate ("little chili pepper" Hung Hsiu-chu) as late as October of this year, for Taipei Mayor Eric Chu.   Chu is trying to distance himself from Ma by criticizing his party leader's controversial trade agreement. It hasn't seemed to make much difference in the polls.

Back to my original question: Why does the recent Ma-Xi meeting and upcoming elections even matter to the average American far away across the Pacific? It matters because like it or not Chinese politics influences not only their economy, but the world economy, stability in the Pacific region, as well as climate change which merits our attention. If the yuan's downturn is making waves in Africa, you can be sure its vexing everyone else, such is globalization. Yet a policy of isolationism isn't in anyone's interests, let alone Taiwan's. Even Ma sees the virtue (perhaps a little too late) in increasing trade with partners other than Beijing, like Australia for example.

There's a theory that democratic ideals make the world stable, democracies do not go to war with each other. Democracies in Asia mark as a counter balance to China's influence and agenda of expanding it borders. Taiwan is the glaring example across the straits, modeling to the Chinese people that democracy is possible. If China invades Taiwan, you can be sure that Hawaii, Japan and the Pacific Coast are potentially up for grabs. Unlike American politicians, Chinese authority think long term, they will wait when the timing is right. Not much of the international community has stopped them thus far; every year, inch by inch their contested borders with every country are growing .

We live in extremely interesting times. We in Taiwan are sitting on the edge of our seats, waiting for the January 16 elections, assuming Dr. Tsai Ing-wen will be the new president and somewhat apprehensive to what Beijing's response will be. I'm sure more missiles will be tested, but other than that we wait and see.